As Donald Trump Returns, Europe Debates How to Step Up for Ukraine | Opinion

By: Daniel R. DePetris

If there is one date on the calendar that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia are eyeing today, it’s Jan. 20, 2025. Inauguration Day in America and the return of Donald Trump to the White House could bring significant U.S. policy changes, not only in Ukraine but on issues pertaining to European security broadly.

None of this is a surprise to anybody. Trump has a long record of viewing Europe as exploiting America’s good nature, too fat and lazy to take care of its own defense. Nor is it a revelation, particularly to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that Trump wants the war in Ukraine, which will enter its fourth year this coming February, to end. He reiterated as much during a Time interview last week.

If there is one date on the calendar that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia are eyeing today, it’s Jan. 20, 2025. Inauguration Day in America and the return of Donald Trump to the White House could bring significant U.S. policy changes, not only in Ukraine but on issues pertaining to European security broadly.

None of this is a surprise to anybody. Trump has a long record of viewing Europe as exploiting America’s good nature, too fat and lazy to take care of its own defense. Nor is it a revelation, particularly to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that Trump wants the war in Ukraine, which will enter its fourth year this coming February, to end. He reiterated as much during a Time interview last week.

Despite haggling over the specifics, it’s increasingly clear that the war isn’t going to be resolved militarily. The Russians don’t have the combat power to overtake Ukraine entirely, and the Ukrainians don’t have the combat power to push all Russian forces out of its territory. The rate of attrition is so steep on both sides—the Russians are thought to have lost 1,500 soldiers a day in October, while the Ukrainian army’s recruitment problems are getting more pressing—that one wonders how long the fighting can go on. Even Zelensky, who has put on a brave face for his people from the very moment the war began, is dropping some of his maximalist demands. In late November and again in early December, Zelensky all but acknowledged that Kyiv wouldn’t be able to re-capture the territory Russia currently occupies, even as he remains steadfast in his commitment to gaining it all back eventually.

Outside of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who remains inflexible as his forces continue to grind down Ukraine’s defenses in the Donbas, there is a general recognition in Western capitals that a diplomatic agreement is more palpable at this stage than indefinite warfare. Ukraine’s backers in the United States and Europe are still insisting that Kyiv will be the one to determine what kind of agreement is acceptable. But the fact that European policymakers are publicly discussing post-war scenarios demonstrates that Europe’s previous “whatever it takes for Ukraine to win” position is no longer guiding the policy.

Whatever hypothetical deal is negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, the Europeans won’t be able to avoid playing a major role enforcing it. The United States will be involved to some extent, likely through funding the enterprise and perhaps providing monitors of the intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance capabilities required to uphold a ceasefire. But President-elect Donald Trump has been unequivocal that U.S. troops won’t be on the ground participating in any peacekeeping mission that is established. During his meeting with Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 7, Trump insisted that European powers needed to take the leadership role in ensuring any ceasefire holds.

Macron took Trump’s words to heart because days later, he broached the subject of a potential European-led Ukraine peacekeeping operation to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk when he was in Warsaw. Given that Poland is one of the most active backers of Kyiv in the European Union, Tusk’s response to the proposal was a bit out-of-character: stop speculating about what may or may not happen. “Decisions regarding Polish actions will be taken in Warsaw, and Warsaw alone,” Tusk said. “For now we are not planning such actions.”

Those words aside, European officials and defense planners are indeed in the early phase of thinking through these options. What would a European-led mission in Ukraine look like? How many personnel would be required to serve as a sufficient-enough deterrent against more Russian aggression in the future? If the numbers are high, say around 100,000, could European ground forces muster up the force at a time when other peacekeeping missions in the Balkans are still taking place? Just as importantly, even if European armies have the capacity to take the mission on, would European governments, defined by fickle politics back home, have the political will to approve the mission, let alone sustain it over a long period of time?

Right now, all these questions remain academic. But depending on Trump’s persistence and chops as a negotiator, academic questions can become real ones very soon. European leaders, often content with piggy-backing on American largesse, should at least be given some credit for getting the ball rolling.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-returns-europe-debates-how-step-ukraine-opinion-2003690